Hurricane warning issued as Lala takes aim at Hawaii

(CNN) — Hawaii is bracing for a potential hurricane strike this weekend after Tropical Storm Lala’s forecast track shifted north, bringing the strengthening storm – and its heavy rain, damaging winds and dangerous surf – close to the Big Island.

A hurricane warning is now in effect for Hawaii County, meaning hurricane conditions are expected somewhere on the Big Island by this weekend. A tropical storm watch was also issued for Maui County, including Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe.

Lala’s sustained winds increased to 60 mph Thursday evening as the storm moved west-northwest about 555 miles east-southeast of Hilo, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The latest forecast takes Lala near the Big Island on Saturday, raising the possibility of a rare hurricane landfall there. Even a slight shift in its path could determine whether the storm’s center crosses the island or narrowly passes to its south.

Hawaii Gov. Josh Green declared a statewide emergency Thursday, allowing officials to activate the National Guard and access emergency funding as the state prepares for Lala.

Confidence in the exact track should improve closer to the weekend once the storm is more organized.

Landfalls on the Hawaiian islands have only happened a handful of times in the modern record. The last tropical system to make landfall was Tropical Storm Olivia in 2018, which came ashore on Maui — that island’s first landfall since recordkeeping began in the 1950s.

Rainfall remains one of Lala’s most serious threats. The storm could unload 8 to 12 inches across Maui and the Big Island, with isolated totals up to 25 inches possible on the Big Island. Another 4 to 6 inches is forecast across the rest of the island chain, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches.

The Big Island will be the first to see heavy rain, beginning Friday. It will spread to Maui on Saturday and reach Lanai, Molokai, Oahu and Kauai by Sunday. The National Hurricane Center has warned of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain.

The Big Island is at the greatest risk of Lala’s strongest winds with the storm’s center forecast to pass just south of the island. Winds at that strength can down trees and power lines and cause power outages, a risk exacerbated by rain-soaked soil that makes trees easier to topple.

Lala could also push 1 to 3 feet of storm surge water above normally dry ground along parts of the Big Island’s coast. Large, dangerous waves will begin reaching east-facing shores Friday and build through the weekend, bringing life-threatening surf, rip currents, coastal flooding and significant beach erosion.

“This is the time to prepare, not panic,” Honolulu Mayor Rick Blangiardi said, as officials across the state urge residents to check emergency supplies, review family plans and stay informed in the coming days.

A developing Super El Niño is helping fuel increased storm potential in the central Pacific this year. Warmer ocean temperatures and weaker storm-killing upper-level winds in the region make it easier for storms to form and strengthen. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has forecast an above-average central Pacific season, with five to 13 tropical cyclones expected.

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