‘I really do have faith in him’: Central Oregonians voice their views on whether Punxsutawney Phil’s forecasts are trustworthy
Each February 2, on Groundhog Day, the members of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club make the pilgrimage to Gobbler’s Knob – Phil’s official home.
The group waits for Phil to leave his burrow and (legend has it) if he sees his shadow, six more weeks of winter are on the way. If he doesn’t, an early spring arrives.
Phil and his friends in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, have been predicting the seasons since 1887, according to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club. There were ten total times his prediction was not written down and only one time where he did not come out of hybernation. This was in 1945 during World War II.
Scientifically speaking, winter will end on the spring equinox on March 19 at 11:06 p.m. ET, regardless of today’s prediction. But Mother Nature doesn’t always follow the timetable, and neither does Phil.
On average, Phil’s prognostications have hit the mark just under 40% of the time since 2013, according to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. For a track record with worse odds than a coin flip, putting stock in Phil’s forecasts may not be a great bet.
Punxsutawney Phil has seen his shadow 107 times and missed it 21 times, including today.
Central Oregon residents shared their opinions on whether they trust Punxsutawney Phil. Marc Melani said, “yeah, he’s been doing it for a long time” with another resident, Bryce Rader saying, “sorry, Punxsutawney usually get it wrong, check the stats.”
Other residents commented on whether they preferred an early spring or six more weeks of winter. One resident, Siena Falzon said, “I really love spring. And just seeing all of the flowers looking. i’m ready for the winter weather to be over.” Another resident, Mckenzie Piercy said, “I really love the snow, so I’m hoping for just a few more weeks of winter.”
Not only is Punxsutawney Phil an animal predicting the weather. Oregon has its own beaver calling the weather shots. Living at the Oregon Zoo, his name is Stumptown Fil. Because he’s a Beaver many Oregonians find trust in him. One resident, Patty Warlick, commented whether or not he’s more trustworthy than the Pennsylvania groundhog saying, “maybe, if he’s from Oregon.” Another local, Brandon Hiller, stirred up controversy saying, “I’m a duck fan so I can’t go for a beaver.”
Regardless of which animal you prefer, Stumptown Fil made the same prediction of an early spring. The origin of the quirky American tradition started from a newspaper editor in Punxsutawney who happened to be apart of a groundhog hunting club.
Despite everyone hoping for an early spring start, there are experts who have what Phil lacks.
Meteorologists at the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center produce forecasts for temperatures and precipitation across the US on timescales ranging from 1 to 2 weeks to more than a full year in the future.
The center’s latest outlook for February calls for above-average temperatures across a huge part of the US, a trend forecast to continue into spring across the northern US.
While these potentially warmer conditions could be interpreted as an early spring, it’s more indicative of a winter that largely hasn’t lived up to the name.
Every state in the northern half of the US experienced one of the warmest Decembers on record this winter, seven of which were record-warm. Despite a brutal cold mid-month with two powerful blizzards, January still began and ended with above-average temperatures for much of the region.
Warmer winters aren’t a fluke. Winter has become the fastest-warming season for nearly 75% of the US as temperatures rise globally because of human-caused climate change.
Given that, will Phil’s prediction of an early spring come true? To quote the Magic 8 Ball, a popular fortune-telling toy with similar scientific clout to the beloved groundhog: “Signs point to yes.”
The-CNN-Wire
™ & © 2024 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.
