Netflix stock soars on the dollar’s slide

By Paul R. La Monica, CNN

Netflix had the kind of year in 2022 that only the ghoulishly morbid Wednesday Addams would love. But, now, in part due to a sagging dollar, the picture is getting brighter.

Netflix shares plunged more than 50% last year due to concerns about streaming subscription fatigue, increased competition from the likes of Disney, Apple, Amazon, Comcast’s Peacock, Paramount and CNN and HBO owner Warner Bros. Discovery, along with questions about whether Netflix’s new advertising-supported option would help or hurt it.

But as this year begins, Netflix is enjoying a solid rebound. The stock is up about 10% already in 2023, a surge that’s grabbing Wall Street’s attention ahead of the streamer’s fourth-quarter earnings release next week.

One possible reason for the recent turnaround? The suddenly weaker dollar could be giving it a boost.

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback versus the euro, yen and several other leading global currencies, is down slightly this year and is off more than 10% from its 52-week high last September. The US Dollar Index rose almost 10% in 2022…a historically large move in the normally stable world of foreign exchange.

Netflix generated nearly 60% of its revenue from outside the United States in the third quarter. So anytime the dollar loses value, that boosts sales and earnings for a multinational company like Netflix once those international results are translated back into dollars.

A strong dollar, on the other hand, is bad news.

Netflix warned when it reported third quarter results in mid-October that the dollar’s appreciation in 2022 would hurt revenue and operating income. Netflix said at the time that it hoped to be able to “adjust our pricing and cost structure for a stronger US dollar world.”

Now that the US dollar is no longer so mighty, Netflix is off to just such a strong beginning of the year. Its stock has been rallying pretty hard since it reported its latest earnings. It’s up about 30% since then…and has nearly doubled from its 52-week lows.

Even super bearish analysts at Goldman Sachs, who have a “sell” rating on Netflix, conceded in a report Monday that “we expect less severe headwinds relative to initial expectations” thanks to the weakening dollar.

The Goldman analysts added that “as the [US dollar] continues to weaken vs. other currencies, this will provide a tailwind for margins going forward” and that they were raising their profit margin outlook on the streamer “to account for this dynamic.”

Netflix will report its fourth quarter earnings on January 19. It will be interesting to hear what management says about the impact of the weaker dollar in its letter to shareholders and conference call with analysts.

Investors in other big blue chip multinational firms, such as Apple, Coca-Cola, McDonald’s and Microsoft, will be paying close attention as well.

The-CNN-Wire
™ & © 2023 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.