Venezuela’s acting president is facing her worst crisis yet. Could it help her stay in power?

(CNN) — The devastating earthquakes that struck Venezuela last month would have tested any government. But they have hit a country still navigating the aftermath of strongman Nicolás Maduro’s capture six months ago, turning a natural disaster into a political test for acting President Delcy Rodríguez and exposing anger over the state’s response.

The two catastrophic earthquakes that hit Venezuela in quick succession on June 24, have left more than 3,000 dead, which experts say is a major undercount.

Both inside and outside the country, many citizens believe the authorities have responded too slowly and failed to adequately address the tragedy, a criticism Rodríguez firmly rejects.

Analysts interviewed by CNN say the earthquakes have become a defining test for the interim government, exposing its political vulnerability and the limits of the state’s power to respond to the disaster. They argue that its outcome remains highly uncertain and that the actions of the United States will be decisive, given the supervisory role Washington currently plays in Venezuela.

“Delcy Rodríguez is now facing the greatest test of her leadership,” said Imdat Oner, a scholar at Florida International University. “At the same time, public anger is rising over poor management and the slow response. But in authoritarian regimes, crises like this often strengthen those in power.”

Oner suggested that Rodríguez could use “emergency regulations to centralize her authority, tighten security, and postpone political reforms in the name of stability and reconstruction.”

“The disaster has exposed the weakness of the state,” Oner said, “but in the short term it gives the government more room to hold on to power rather than being forced to relinquish it.”

But beyond any political opportunity the disaster may present Rodríguez, the government remains extremely weak, and the task of recovery after the earthquakes is daunting.

“The immediate challenge is enormous, but so is the task of economic recovery and rebuilding the devastated region,” said Phil Gunson, a Caracas-based analyst with the International Crisis Group. “That will require a great deal of money the government simply does not have.”

A tragedy exposes weakness

The June 24 earthquakes rank among the deadliest natural disasters in Venezuela’s history. Beyond the 3,685 reported fatalities, more than 16,000 people have been injured, and over 17,000 have been displaced, according to the country’s officials.

Hundreds of buildings have been damaged, and the economic impact is estimated at approximately 6% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), according to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).

A disaster of this magnitude would challenge any government, but analysts argue that Venezuela’s situation is particularly severe because it occurred in a country with institutions weakened by 25 years of rule by followers of the late President Hugo Chávez.

“The state simply lacks the capacity to respond,” said Gunson. “It doesn’t have the budget, personnel, planning, leadership, equipment, or heavy machinery.”

On the ground, numerous eyewitness accounts suggest the government’s response has been insufficient, with many people still trapped or missing.

Asked about these criticisms during a press conference last Thursday, Rodríguez denied that authorities had acted slowly. Instead, she said 4,000 personnel had been deployed within the first 24 hours, with that number quickly rising to 19,000, supported by international rescue teams.

“Anyone who wants to verify the reality is welcome to do so,” she said. “That is the instruction to the national government: deploy and work tirelessly, save lives, and care for the survivors as we are doing and will continue to do. Despite the challenges, we have received both national and international support.”

The opposition at arm’s length

Against this backdrop, opposition groups have intensified their criticism of the Venezuelan government. Before the earthquakes, some opposition figures were optimistic, especially after top government officials met with Dinorah Figuera, the former president of the National Assembly elected in 2015 –– the last Venezuelan legislature recognized by the international community.

According to opposition groups, the meeting could have represented an initial step toward negotiating a political transition with US support. However, Venezuelan academic Carlos Torrealba told CNN that the earthquakes have interrupted whatever process may have been underway.

“Uncertainty has only deepened,” Torrealba said, adding that any political changes would almost certainly be delayed even further. The process was already unclear, he said, and now appears even more distant.

The opposition’s dilemma is exemplified by one of its most prominent leaders, Nobel Peace laureate María Corina Machado, who has tried in vain to enter Venezuela since the earthquakes. In a video posted on X on June 29, Machado said she was in Panama and accused the Venezuelan government of preventing her from entering the country to participate in relief efforts.

“This is not about me,” Machado said. “There are thousands — millions — of us who want to be together, a grieving nation that needs to mourn together. At this moment, I am willing to do whatever is necessary, speak with whoever is necessary, to coordinate and serve our people.”

The United States, however, does not appear to support Machado’s intended return to Venezuela.

Asked about the issue, a State Department spokesperson told CNN in an email on Thursday: “The Trump administration remains fully focused on advancing our response to the devastating earthquakes in Venezuela. Our response has been swift and effective. Introducing sensitive political issues at this moment would be counterproductive to our efforts to respond to this tragedy.”

According to Gunson of the International Crisis Group, statements like this suggest that Washington does not view Machado’s movement as a viable alternative for governing Venezuela.

“The United States does not believe in María Corina Machado’s strategy,” he said. “It does not believe she and her allies are capable of managing the current situation. That was true before the earthquake, and even more so now.”

Oner, the professor at Florida International University, added that many Venezuelans believed Rodríguez’s weak response to the earthquakes would prompt Washington to reconsider its support for her, but that has not happened.

In his view, this indicates that the US is likely to continue backing the acting president—at least for now—while prioritizing Venezuela’s stability and safeguarding its economic and oil interests.

“Delcy knows how to make her government useful to Washington by responding to every request coming from the United States,” said Oner. “That makes it likely the White House will continue supporting her while pushing for limited reforms and cooperation, without seriously pressing for elections or a full democratic transition anytime soon. For now, a political transition remains off the horizon.”

The-CNN-Wire
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