Questions swirl over cause of Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash that left at least 38 dead

(CNN) — Azerbaijan held a day of mourning on Thursday for the dozens of victims of an airliner crash in Kazakhstan, as questions were being asked over the cause of the disaster.

The reasons why Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243 came down are still unknown. Reuters reported Thursday that the plane was downed by a Russian air defense system, citing multiple unnamed sources in Azerbaijan with knowledge of the investigation.

Officials from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia, three countries linked to the disaster, urged people not to speculate about the crash until investigations have concluded.

The plane was traveling from the Azerbaijani capital Baku to Grozny in the southern Russian republic of Chechnya before it made an emergency landing approximately 3 kilometers (1.8 miles) from Aktau, Kazakhstan, the carrier said on Wednesday.

Russian state media reported that the plane was rerouted due to heavy fog in Grozny.

Officials did not immediately explain why the plane had crossed the Caspian Sea, when Baku and Grozny are to its west and Aktau is to its east.

Flight-tracking website Flightradar24 said in a social media post that the aircraft was “exposed to GPS jamming and spoofing near Grozny.” GPS jamming can significantly hinder a plane’s ability to navigate and communicate, Flightradar24 said, creating potential safety risks.

Data and video of the crash also “indicate possible control issues with the aircraft,” Flightradar24 said.

Some 29 survivors, including two children, were pulled from the wreckage, Kazakhstan’s Deputy Prime Minister Kanat Bozumbayev said.

Azerbaijani state news agency AZERTAC reported that 12 survivors will be transported back to Azerbaijan on Thursday, five of whom are in a “serious but stable condition.” These five people will be flown back by a special aircraft from the country’s Ministry of Emergency Situations, AZERTAC said.

NATO’s spokesperson Farah Dakhlallah said in a social media post that the alliance’s “thoughts and prayers are with the families and victims” of the disaster. “We wish those injured in the crash a speedy recovery and call for a full investigation,” she wrote.

Video and images of the plane after it crashed show perforations in its body that look similar to damage from shrapnel or debris. The cause of these holes has not been confirmed.

Azerbaijan Airlines initially told AZERTAC that the incident was caused by the aircraft colliding with a flock of birds, the outlet reported. Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency Rosaviatsia also said that the plane crashed after colliding with birds.

However, Andriy Kovalenko, the head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, part of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, disputed this, claiming on social media that the plane was “shot down by a Russian air defense system.”

The crash came shortly after Ukrainian drone strikes hit southern Russia. Drone activity has shut airports in the area in the past and the nearest Russian airport on the plane’s flight path was closed on Wednesday morning.

“Russia should have closed the airspace over Grozny but failed to do so,” Kovalenko said, speculating that authorities will try to cover up the real reason behind the crash, including the holes in the plane, as it would be “inconvenient” to blame Russia.

Justin Crump, an intelligence, security and defense expert and the CEO of risk advisory company Sibylline, told BBC Radio 4 on Thursday that the damage inflicted on the plane “looks very much like (there was a) detonation of an air defense missile to the rear and to the left of the aircraft.”

He speculated that the pilots of the plane may have reported a bird strike when the plane was first damaged because they were “obviously not expecting” to be shot at.

At the moment, the plane being fired at by Russia is “the best theory that fits all the available facts that we know of,” Crump said.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday that it would be wrong to speculate about the cause of the plane crash before an investigation had been carried out, according to Russian state media RIA Novosti.

Maulen Ashimbayev, chairman of Kazakhstan’s senate, said Thursday that “the nature of these damages and the causes of the disaster are currently unknown.”

A commission has been set up to investigate the crash, involving representatives from Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Russia, Ashimbayev said.

Kanat Bozumbayev, Kazakhstan’s deputy prime minister, said that “even the preliminary cause cannot be determined yet, as specialists are needed for that.”

“They will conduct the work, and then it will be clear,” Bozumbayev said Thursday.

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CNN’s Darya Tarasova contributed to this report.